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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although experts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.